Category: Tokyo

The financial crisis of capitalism and its repercussions on the Iraqi economy

5-16-13 Almada News:   J ​​d. accustomed Naji al-Hamdani crisis has forced the U.S. administration and some capitalist governments to use the machinery of state to rescue its economy slope towards the abyss, a measure contrary to the principles of capitalism based on non-interference of the state in economic affairs. Has targeted government intervention some action to relieve the crisis, including:

1 – nationalization of the greater part of the largest insurance company in the world, and buy debt troubled $ 85 billion.
2 – nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mann العقاريتين with a total Rhonathma Real Estate $ 5 trillion.
3 – The government allocated U.S. $ 150 billion as incentives financial including $ 100 billion in tax breaks for individuals and $ 50 billion for companies in order to stimulate the economy and increase consumption.
4 – the nationalization of American International Group Insurance in an attempt to prevent them from collapsing.

For European countries intervention of government focus on:

1 – the feet of France to inject 3 billion euros to secure the liquidity of troubled banks.
2 – pumped Belgium 3 billion euros to save the bank Dicksaal EU
3 – pumping bank EU 120 billion euros in order to avoid the collapse of the global financial system.
4 – pumped British about $ 64 billion to save the three banks from bankruptcy and collapse.

Accordingly crisis of capitalism is the crisis of violent erupted due to the worsening contradictions of capitalism sharp conflicts between monopolies intercontinental for markets and profits, due to poor distribution of income and wealth.
has demonstrated elements of the crisis and its causes and its burdens on the right theory of scientific socialism of Karl Marx about the importance of the role of the state and of government intervention in the planning and coordination of economic and proved they are saying balance auto market economy capitalism.

repercussions of the crisis on the Iraqi economy secretions crisis painful not confined to the financial sector, but spread to other sectors in the United States and the countries of the euro and Asian countries because of the complexity of international economic relations and link most of the economies of the U.S. economy . Iraq is not immune from the consequences of the crisis, especially that of the Iraqi economy economy ريعيا and relies almost exclusively on oil exports will naturally be affected by imports financial fluctuations caused by the crisis at the world’s oil.

budget is Iraq that depend on financing more than 95% of oil imports have been affected in directly by the crisis, Valtraja in oil prices from $ 147 to $ 42 a barrel led to a budget deficit of more than $ 19 billion. To avoid this deficit, the government went to borrow from the International Monetary Fund. The budget has been prepared on the basis of the expected oil prices to $ 60 per barrel, but the price per barrel fell to $ 42 and less than that for this reason has been re-amend the budget for several times. Thus becoming the Iraqi budget subject to oil prices that are subject to international prices. Deterioration in oil revenues will reflect negatively on the growth of Iraqi assets of hard currency, and led to a decline in Iraqi dinar exchange rate of 1120 to 1320 dinars per dollar.
said Iraqi assets estimated at more than $ 70 billion if they invested securities sovereign foreign central banks will be safe from speculation and landslides created by the crisis. since been most Western banks to Hurricane financial crisis and suffered losses financial losses led to the bankruptcy of some and sell some of them and the nationalization of others to save it from collapse.

Weak integration of Iraq’s economy economy capitalist has eased the burden of the crisis and raised dreadful on the economy Iraq for two reasons:

1 –  The lack of direct correlation between the Iraqi market for securities and stock markets, especially the New York Stock Exchange, London, and Tokyo has eased the effects of the crisis on the Iraqi capital market. The Iraqi capital migrating abroad and invested in the stock exchanges of Arab and foreign countries will be affected by the crisis. And for foreign investors in the Iraqi market for securities, the trading volume of money is only 3% of the total trading, which جنبهم risk of bankruptcy suffered by investors other international stock exchanges.
2 –  The economic stagnation and recession Commodity left by the financial crisis in European countries Bank led to lower prices for goods and services in countries in crisis. The impact positively on the Iraqi market. The adoption of Iraq in securing commodity needs on foreign markets has contributed to the decline of imported inflation rates. And strengthened a bit of the value of the Iraqi currency.
and نستنج so that the Iraqi economy because of poor integration economy capitalist and not joining the World Trade Organization has kept him a certain amount about the devastating effects of the crisis that affected by the crisis remains limited compared to losses painful suffered by the economies combined economy of capitalism. With regards to international financial transactions in the Iraqi market for securities, they are limited and confined to Iraqi companies mainly than her side bitterness of the crisis.

explosive crisis in the advanced industrial capitalist countries indication that the live stage of capitalist imperialism moribund carrying factors فنائها. Capitalism in the final analysis dug her grave in her hand as Karl Marx says in his capital.

LINK

State budgets took into account the sharp fluctuations in oil prices this year

Aims to invoke the forces of supply and demand in the global markets in the foundation, to access to the best pricing just for goods and services regular and strategy, as it will be the levels of competition are high, as well as diversity in the number of producers of goods and services, and the variation in the indicators of growth and decline in both producer and consumer, and predicted Company ‘Crescent’ in the weekly report, that all parties up markets to competition ends with the best results and lower losses.

It noted that the forces of supply and demand in the global markets’ did not reflect the fair prices, and did not reach the level of efficiency through which you can determine the size of the real supply and demand, according to the indicators of growth and the current and projected decline.

And saw the report, it is natural move in commodity prices in the global markets in the form of a lasting between hearing and another, and is not normal to be moves daily unjustified and do not reflect tracks the global economy and sectors of production, as not talking here about countries or regions or economic group.

It must have access to the highest levels of efficiency in trading at this level of openness .

He reported that the Brent oil price index fell in 2012 to the lowest level, ie $ 90 per barrel, while able to rebound and rise again, up to $ 111 before the annual closing.

The crude began early this year high, to hit a new level, at $ 118 a barrel, before it starts to decline to below $ 100 a barrel, to settle at $ 105.24.

In contrast oil price index wire ‘NYMEX’ track itself, its lowest level in 2012, below $ 80 a barrel and the highest at $ 98, before settling at $ 95.43 a barrel last week.

The report also pointed out, that the oil price indices reflect the movement of the markets within the ranges are high, because the talk is on strategic commodities such as oil.

While the recorded tracks can be justified a natural, as it reflects the state of weakness and volatility in the global economy.

The report pointed out that producing countries ?alerted when preparing their budgets for this year, accredited so to hedge against price volatility in the ranges are high, the fact that indicators of the global economy has stabilized and did not take a clear path yet, so it must be hedged in advance.

While some reports said that the Gulf states specifically ?relied on expectations prices ranging between $ 60 and $ 75 a barrel this year.
He said that this trend is the most reasonable in the vicinity of the rapid changes and developments in the oil markets and the global economy, due to the acquisition of oil revenues for about 90 percent of the proceeds to the many producing countries.

Thus, the producing countries ?Access avoided in deficit to the approved budgets for this year.

The report declared, that the danger here ?lies in raising the limits of their budgets producing countries in accordance with the high prices and revenues in 2012, as it pushed the increase in revenue to achieve additional government spending on infrastructure projects and development.

As a result, the talk now is about ?may be affected final budget surpluses at the annual closure, which in itself is a positive development, as it is far from going into deficit.

The report of the ‘Crescent’ most important events in the oil and gas sector, in the United Arab Emirates, confirmed the company ‘Dana’ completion of a refinancing deal Sukuk Certificates (speculative instruments) amounting billion.

And heading Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), to conclude a new partnership agreement with Shell to develop the production of higher gas impurities from? Bab field in the emirate.

It owns ADNOC 60 percent and Shell 40 percent of the rights to develop the field, and the ownership of the new company to be created to manage the construction and operation of plants and facilities of the project.

And petroleum sources estimated that the cost of the development of the field $ 10 billion.

The spokesman said the Japanese Foreign Ministry, that Tokyo has signed an agreement for nuclear cooperation and technology transfer with the United Arab Emirates, and told her that it wants to renew the franchise share of oil and gas expires in 2018.

In Iraq, indicated the company Royal Dutch Shell? British – Dutch, that the company South Gas? Iraqi and coalition, which includes Shell and Mitsubishi Japanese, we announced the startup official of the company Basra Gas, which is the largest gas project in Iraq’s history to reduce gas flaring in the southern city of Basra, south of Baghdad.

The company denied ?UAE’s Dana Gas, the rumors about its intention to sell the company’s assets in the Kurdistan region, stressing the insertion options studied in a global stock exchange.

And entered into the Turkish electricity company ‘Karti’ agreement to export electricity to the Kurdistan region in northern Iraq, and has applied for a license for export, in a development that could increase tension between Ankara and Baghdad.

In Kuwait, announced the president of the Kuwait Gulf Oil Company, the company began to implement a project to exploit associated gas fields at a cost of four million Kuwaiti dinars.

LINK

Initial plan for paying for the Iraq war was potentially by collecting taxes from the revaluation of the dinar.

5-10-13 SWFloridaGuy: The four leading central bankers from the U.S., U.K., France and Germany navigated in and out of WWI and financed recoveries and German reparations.

These central bankers went off and on the gold and new dollar standards by manipulating their exchange and interest rates.

We’ve all heard the rumor that the Bush administration initial plan for paying for the Iraq war was potentially by collecting taxes from the revaluation of the dinar.

Now, whether or not this is a remotely plausible scenario, it’s hard to discount that, if applied, it would certainly raise revenue and supplement the closing of tax loopholes.

Having said that, I’m far from convinced that the statement implying the Iraq war will pay for itself directly relates to the RV of the IQD. Due to my skeptical nature, this theory has me far from convinced although I do recognize the advantages this would incur.

The IMF’s panel discussion in Tokyo is advising less developed economies (such as Iraq) to let their currencies appreciate, delivering a strongly worded counterargument to their own critiques of the Fed.

In some emerging markets, policy makers have chosen to systematically resist currency appreciation as a means of promoting exports and domestic growth. China is a prime example.

However, the situation faced by Iraq, considering their goals to go international, de-dollarize, join the WTO with full accession and refrain from intervening in foreign-exchange markets, thereby allowing the currency to rise.

The more Iraq moves toward becoming less dependent on exports and more driven by domestic factors the policy makers could use GOI spending and tax policies to support their economy which is in dire need of diversification.

This approach would support emerging economies and supplement the recovery of advanced economies. Christine Lagarde made the comment at a conference in late 2012, I believe, where she recognized Iraq’s potential to benefit the global economy during these turbulent times.

A common misconception is differentiating between real and nominal currency revaluation. The nominal exchange rate can appreciate while relative price levels in an emerging market relative to the US remained unchanged.

If you wish to speculate on the long-term real exchange rate your best bet is to compare the rate observed in the currency markets against the purchasing power parity (PPP).

This is the implicit exchange rate at which the amount of money needed to purchase the same goods and services in two countries is the same.

If we wish to determine how quickly an emerging market’s (such as Iraq) currency can appreciate we must consider the state of their economic progress and political stability.

It is inevitable that emerging market currencies are likely to see a gradual appreciation, possibly algorithmic in nature, considering the global financial crisis.

This is all purely conjecture and wishful thinking on my part and I would recommend doing your own research and sharing your own thoughts with us all so we can collectively come to a better understanding and alleviate the misconceptions that plague this community and perpetuate the hype that gives a truly great opportunity such a bad reputation.

In closing, I would like to note that the preceding discussion is drawn from world-renowned macroeconomic experts and global financial advisers. The general consensus among these leading experts was published as follows:

“We think that both economic theory as well as empirical data confirm our expectations that emerging market currencies will appreciate in the coming years, both in real but also in nominal terms!”

References:

1. Penn World Table Version 6.1

2. Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of
Pennsylvania

3. Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, July 2012, Penn World Table Version 7.1,
Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of
Pennsylvania

4. Bela Balassa, “The purchasing power parity doctrine: A reappraisal”. Journal of Political Economy 72584-96

5. Kenneth Rogoff, The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle”, J. Economic Literature, 34

6. Paul A. Samuelson, “Theoretical notes on trade problems”, Review of Economics
and Statistics 46 (May): 145-54

Friday Night SWFG post emailed to Recaps

5-10-13 SWFloridaGuy: The four leading central bankers from the U.S., U.K., France and Germany navigated in and out of WWI and financed recoveries and German reparations.

These central bankers went off and on the gold and new dollar standards by manipulating their exchange and interest rates.

We’ve all heard the rumor that the Bush administration initial plan for paying for the Iraq war was potentially by collecting taxes from the revaluation of the dinar.

Now, whether or not this is a remotely plausible scenario, it’s hard to discount that, if applied, it would certainly raise revenue and supplement the closing of tax loopholes.

Having said that, I’m far from convinced that the statement implying the Iraq war will pay for itself directly relates to the RV of the IQD. Due to my skeptical nature, this theory has me far from convinced although I do recognize the advantages this would incur.

Read More Link on Right

The IMF’s panel discussion in Tokyo is advising less developed economies (such as Iraq) to let their currencies appreciate, delivering a strongly worded counterargument to their own critiques of the Fed.

In some emerging markets, policy makers have chosen to systematically resist currency appreciation as a means of promoting exports and domestic growth. China is a prime example.

However, the situation faced by Iraq, considering their goals to go international, de-dollarize, join the WTO with full accession and refrain from intervening in foreign-exchange markets, thereby allowing the currency to rise.

The more Iraq moves toward becoming less dependent on exports and more driven by domestic factors the policy makers could use GOI spending and tax policies to support their economy which is in dire need of diversification.

This approach would support emerging economies and supplement the recovery of advanced economies. Christine Lagarde made the comment at a conference in late 2012, I believe, where she recognized Iraq’s potential to benefit the global economy during these turbulent times.

A common misconception is differentiating between real and nominal currency revaluation. The nominal exchange rate can appreciate while relative price levels in an emerging market relative to the US remained unchanged.

If you wish to speculate on the long-term real exchange rate your best bet is to compare the rate observed in the currency markets against the purchasing power parity (PPP).

This is the implicit exchange rate at which the amount of money needed to purchase the same goods and services in two countries is the same.

If we wish to determine how quickly an emerging market’s (such as Iraq) currency can appreciate we must consider the state of their economic progress and political stability.

It is inevitable that emerging market currencies are likely to see a gradual appreciation, possibly algorithmic in nature, considering the global financial crisis.

This is all purely conjecture and wishful thinking on my part and I would recommend doing your own research and sharing your own thoughts with us all so we can collectively come to a better understanding and alleviate the misconceptions that plague this community and perpetuate the hype that gives a truly great opportunity such a bad reputation.

In closing, I would like to note that the preceding discussion is drawn from world-renowned macroeconomic experts and global financial advisers. The general consensus among these leading experts was published as follows:

“We think that both economic theory as well as empirical data confirm our expectations that emerging market currencies will appreciate in the coming years, both in real but also in nominal terms!”

References:

1. Penn World Table Version 6.1

2. Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of
Pennsylvania

3. Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, July 2012, Penn World Table Version 7.1,
Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of
Pennsylvania

4. Bela Balassa, “The purchasing power parity doctrine: A reappraisal”. Journal of Political Economy 72584-96

5. Kenneth Rogoff, The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle”, J. Economic Literature, 34

6. Paul A. Samuelson, “Theoretical notes on trade problems”, Review of Economics
and Statistics 46 (May): 145-54

Forex Flash: US dollar weakness extends modestly heading into FOMC – BTMU

Forex Flash: US dollar weakness extends modestly heading into FOMC – BTMU

FXstreet.com4 hours ago

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – Lee Hardman, FX analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the US dollar has continued to weaken modestly in the Asian trading session, losing ground against the high yielding commodity linked currencies of the …

Forex

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar traded slightly lower against the Japanese yen during Friday’s Asian session after the release of some concerning consumer price inflation data.

In Asian trading Friday, USD/JPY inched lower by 0.05% to 99.22. The pair was likely to find support at 98.47, Tuesday’s low and resistance at 99.75, Wednesday’s high.

Earlier Friday, Japan’s Statistics Bureau said the country’s consumer price inflation fell to -0.5% last month from -0.3% in February. Analysts expected a March reading of -0.4%. Japan’s March CPI data could be a sign the Bank of Japan’s inflation target of 2% could be harder to reach than some had previously hoped.

In a separate report, the Statistics Bureau said that Tokyo’s core CPI, which excludes fresh food costs, increased -0.3% last month from -0.5% in February. Analysts expected Tokyo’s core CPI to rise to -0.4% last month.

Traders will now turn their attention to another BoJ policy meeting later Friday. This is the second meeting under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

It is not widely expected to announce any new easing measures after pledging earlier this month to double its asset purchase program over the next two years in order to achieve its 2% inflation target.

Elsewhere, EUR/JPY inched up 0.03% to 129.20. The pair sought to test support at 127.88, Monday’s low, and resistance at 130.67, Monday’ high.

NZD/JPY jumped 0.22% to 84.55 after Statistics New Zealand said the country’s trade balance unexpectedly rose last month to NZD718 million from NZD414 million. Analysts expected the trade balance to decline to NZD373 million.

AUD/JPY rose 0.22% to 102.37.

Investing.com
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Forex – USD/JPY near 1

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar fell to one-week lows against the yen on Friday, after the Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy without outlining any additional measures to meet its inflation target.

USD/JPY hit 98.23 during early European trade, the pair’s lowest since April 19; the pair subsequently consolidated at 98.78, declining 0.50%.

The pair was likely to find support at 97.63, the low of April 18 and resistance at 99.55, Thursday’s high.

In a statement following its April 4 meeting, the BoJ reiterated its commitment to enlarge the monetary base by JPY60 trillion to JPY70 trillion a year.

The central bank also predicted inflation will almost match its target in two years.

Earlier Friday, official data showed that the Tokyo core consumer price index fell by an annualized rate of 0.3% in April, after a 0.5% decline the previous month, compared to expectations for a 0.4% slip.

Separately, demand for the safe haven yen was also supported by speculation over a possible rate cut by the European Central Bank after Goldman Sachs on Thursday said it now expects the ECB to cut rates by 0.25% at next week’s policy meeting.

The investment bank also revised down its euro zone growth forecast for 2013 to minus 0.7% from minus 0.5% previously.

The yen was higher against the euro with EUR/JPY declining 0.41%, to hit 128.62.

Later in the day, the U.S. was to release preliminary data on first quarter growth, followed by revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Investing.com
Investing.com – Investing.com offers an extensive set of professional tools for the Forex, Commodities, Futures and the Stock Market including real-time data streaming, a comprehensive economic calendar, as well as financial news and technical & fundamental analysis by in-house experts.
Read more News on Investing.com or Follow us on Twitter at @Newsinvesting